Bitcoin (BTC) price action has been surprisingly bullish since May 27. Weekends, especially holiday weekends, are notoriously volatile and indecisive, with major whipsaws in price movements being the norm. Even in bull markets, bearish price action is often the norm, but BTC bucked that trend.
BTC/USD daily chart (Coinbase) Source: TradingView
Bitcoin rallied nearly 11% between May 27 and May 30, moving through the critical $28,600 level to move back above $30,000 to $31,700. The weekly close was the highest close of the past twenty days and it gave bulls the strongest three-day run in over two months. However, macroeconomic fears may weigh on any further upside potential.
Global food shortage fears mount at commodities prices rise
The global food supply is a primary yet easily overlooked factor contributing to Bitcoin’s future price potential. Since the beginning of the COV-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have shut down their seaports and airports, effectively cutting off and interrupting the flow of goods. This disruption will take years to return to normal, but that is not the primary cause of concern.
In the United States, fertilizer costs have risen exponentially over the past 18 months. In January 2021, the Fertilizer Price Index stood at $78.83 and is currently at $254.97, increasing nearly +225%. A combination of supply chain disruptions and continued shortages is likely to continue disrupting this market.
Fertilizer price index Source: ycharts.com
Individual commodity prices continue to rise and are a primary contributor to the steady rise in inflation. In particular, wheat (CBOT: ZW) hit new all-time highs in February 2022 and remains near those all-time highs. In just 2022, alone, wheat futures have increased as much as 76% and over 143% in the past 18 months.
Wheat futures (ZW) weekly chart (CBOT) Source: TradingView
Oil futures (NYMEX: CL) continue to rise and are now trading at levels not seen since July 2008. There are broad concerns by traders and investors that oil may spike toward $150 per barrel once China ends its COVID shutdown. When that occurs, demand will most certainly return and further impact oil.
Crude oil futures (NYMEX). Source: TradingView
Growth concerns in the stock market
Equity markets around the globe continue to face significant pressure. Rising inflation, soaring commodity costs, supply chain disruptions and the conflict in Ukraine have put risk-on investors and traders on the defensive.
Several high-impact economic events are scheduled to occur this week, which will likely pause any major price action moves in equities and cryptocurrencies. The European Union unemployment data release comes on June 1, along with the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and manufacturing data. In addition, U.S. unemployment numbers and non-farm payroll data will be released on June 3.
Adding to a busy week, on June 3, three former U.S. Federal Reserve residents are also slated to speak: John Williams and James Bullard talk on June 1, Lael Brainard on June 3.
Technical levels may limit Bitcoin’s recovery to $37,000
Bitcoin is coming off a new historical record of nine consecutive weekly losses. Since the beginning of the current weekly candlestick, buyers have returned and have pushed BTC above the entire trading range of the past two weeks and well above the 50% range of the flash crash on the May 9, 2022 weekly candlestick.
If Bitcoin price can close above the daily Kijun-Sen at or above $31,350, then BTC has a very open path to hit the $37,000 value area. Additionally, the 2022 volume profile is very thin, between $32,000 and $37,000. But $37,000 may be where the bulls face sellers again.
BTC/USD daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. Source: TradingView
If bulls want to send a message to the market that a new uptrend is about to begin, then they will need to push Bitcoin price to a daily close near $44,000. In that scenario, BTC would trigger an “ideal bullish Ichimoku breakout,” giving bulls the path needed to retest the all-time high.
While stock prices remain in bear market territory and commodities remain at all-time highs, at the very least, a temporary reversal is likely to occur. If the old technical analysis adage, “volume precedes price,” plays out again, traders should see food commodities and oil sell-off while stocks and Bitcoin rise.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
