Tether co-founder William Quigley said Bitcoin could potentially surge to $300,000 at the peak of the current bull market, based on historical patterns of past halvings.
He shared the insight during an interview with CNBC, where he discussed the market conditions influencing Bitcoin as the halving approaches. Quigley clarified that his analysis is not a prediction but a possibility if historical patterns hold true.
He said:
“If you applied the historical patterns, it would suggest Bitcoin being in excess of $300,000 at the peak of this next bull market.”
The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 18 and is set to cut the Bitcoin mining reward by half to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. This will effectively reduce the daily supply to 450 BTC from 900 BTC.
Stronger fundamentals
Quigley argued that Bitcoin stands on stronger fundamental grounds now than before the last halving in May 2020. He said the advent of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a surge in derivative volume mark significant milestones that differentiate the current landscape from the past.
He added that the ETFs have seen remarkable interest and recently “hit a record” as their assets under management crossed the $50 billion mark. The 10 ETFs collectively hold approximately 740,000 BTC as of March 6.
The ETFs strong performance has propelled Bitcoin close to its all-time high price levels weeks before the halving — something that has never happened before.
Quigley said the ETFs have caused a pivotal shift in the mix of institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin. Unlike the pre-2020 era, which saw a predominantly retail-driven market, there’s now a pronounced influx of institutional money tracking Bitcoin.
Sentiment driven
Quigley attributed the shifting sentiment to the flagship digital asset’s trademark volatility and its unique position as a sentiment-driven, globally traded asset without traditional financial metrics like company earnings or price-to-earnings ratios.
He said:
“Bitcoin is maybe the only globally traded asset whose demand is purely based on sentiment.”
According to Quigley, sentiment-driven investments have unlimited potential and could fuel an unprecedented rally, possibly making it the largest seen to date.
With the upcoming halving, Quigley expects Bitcoin to continue its historical trend of significant gains post-event. He also suggested that other digital assets, like Ethereum and Solana, would likely rise alongside Bitcoin, potentially achieving higher gains due to their lower market caps.
