{"id":9707,"date":"2023-01-11T16:00:13","date_gmt":"2023-01-11T16:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=9707"},"modified":"2023-01-11T16:00:14","modified_gmt":"2023-01-11T16:00:14","slug":"bitcoin-gained-300-in-year-before-last-halving-is-2023-different","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=9707","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin gained 300% in year before last halving \u2014 Is 2023 different?"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"crypto\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a \u201cbottoming candle\u201d in 2023, but BTC price action is still more than able to surprise the market.<\/p>\n<p>In a tweet on Jan. 11, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC\/USD could see \u201cdecent upside\u201d this year.<\/p>\n<h2>Chart teases serious Bitcoin upside potential<\/h2>\n<p>Analyzing Bitcoin\u2019s four-year market cycles around block subsidy halving events, Rekt Capital drew attention to 2023 being the deadline for its next \u201cbottoming candle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>With the next halving due in 2024, the coming 12 months should see a price floor, followed by a rally as the event draws nearer.<\/p>\n<p>2024 thus forms the fourth candle in Bitcoin\u2019s current cycle, and 2023 the third.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCandle 3 is a Bottoming Candle in the BTC Four Year Cycle. But it can still generate decent upside,\u201d Rekt Capital commented.<\/p>\n<p>The scope for Bitcoin to take traders by surprise is clearly visible in the four-year cycle chart. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cCandle 3 in 2015 saw a +234% move. Candle 3 in 2019 saw a +316% rally,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCandle 3 in 2023 may see stronger upside than most think.\u201d<em>BTC\/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital\/Twitter<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Certain other on-chain observations have led market participants to similarly optimistic conclusions.<\/p>\n<p>Among them, the ratio of unrealized losses held by BTC hodlers continues to eke out a \u201ccapitulation\u201d phase, according to a dedicated indicator monitoring the status quo.<\/p>\n<p><em>Cast your vote now!<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese have been the most profitable times to accumulate Bitcoin. The net unrealized profit\/loss is still in deep capitulation terrority,\u201d trading and analytics account Game of Trades wrote on Twitter on Jan. 11.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin net unrealized profit\/loss ratio annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades\/Twitter<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>2023 macro climate echoes GFC, warns analyst<\/h2>\n<p>Given the current macroeconomic environment, however, rising from the ashes may demand considerable luck when it comes to suppressed crypto asset prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related:\u00a0BTC price 3-week highs greet US CPI \u2014 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the United States Federal Reserve still raising interest rates as inflation abates, concerns now focus on long-term policy implications.<\/p>\n<p>What could afflict sentiment next, analysts including Reventure Consulting founder and CEO Nick Gerli say, is not inflation but deflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Commenting on a chart of U.S. savings trends, Gerli\u00a0warned\u00a0on Jan. 10 that conditions were ripe for a repeat of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in terms of recession.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Savings Rate just collapsed down to 2.2%, the lowest level ever,\u201d he revealed. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cMeans Americans are running out of money. Last time it was this low was 2006-07. Right before GFC. Major Recession Warning. Expect a big decline in consumer spending in 2023.\u201d<em>U.S. personal savings rate annotated chart. Source: Nick Gerli\/Twitter<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Jan. 12 will see the first U.S. Consumer Price Index (data release of 2023, and bets are already in\u00a0as to how Bitcoin will react.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"bitcoin\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-gained-300-in-year-before-last-halving-is-2023-different\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a \u201cbottoming candle\u201d in 2023, but BTC price action is still more than able to surprise the market. In a tweet on Jan. 11, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC\/USD could see \u201cdecent upside\u201d this year. Chart teases serious Bitcoin upside potential Analyzing Bitcoin\u2019s four-year market cycles around [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9708,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9707"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9707\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9709,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9707\/revisions\/9709"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}