{"id":9033,"date":"2022-12-08T00:26:36","date_gmt":"2022-12-08T00:26:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=9033"},"modified":"2022-12-08T00:26:37","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T00:26:37","slug":"bitcoin-options-data-shows-bulls-aiming-for-17k-btc-price-by-fridays-expiry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=9033","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin options data shows bulls aiming for $17K BTC price by Friday\u2019s expiry"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"crypto\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed to $15,500 on Nov. 21, driving the price to its lowest level in two years. The 2-day-long correction totaled an 8% downtrend and wiped out $230 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The price move gave the false impression to bears that a sub-$15,500 expiry on the Dec. 9 options expiry was feasible, but those bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.<\/p>\n<p>Year-to-date, Bitcoin price is 65% down for 2022, but the leading cryptocurrency remains a top 30 global tradable asset class ahead of tech giants like Meta Platforms (META), Samsung (005930.KS), and Coca-Cola (KO). <\/p>\n<p>Investors&#8217; main concern is still the possibility of a recession if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates for longer than expected. Proof of this comes from Dec. 2 data which showed that 263,000 jobs were created in November, signaling the Fed\u2019s effort to slow the economy and bring down inflation remains a work in progress.<\/p>\n<p>On Dec. 7, Wells Fargo director Azhar Iqbal wrote in a note to clients that &#8220;all told, financial indicators point to a recession on the horizon.&#8221; Iqbal added, &#8220;taken together with the inverted yield curve, markets are clearly braced for a recession in 2023.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>Bears were overly pessimistic and will suffer the consequences<\/h2>\n<p>The open interest for the Dec. 9 options expiry is $320 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$15,500 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $16,000 on Nov. 22.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Dec. 9. Source: CoinGlass<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The 1.19 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $175 million call (buy) open interest and the $145 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands at $16,900, meaning most bearish bets will likely become worthless.<\/p>\n<p>If Bitcoin&#8217;s price remains near $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 9, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $16,500 or $15,500 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.<\/p>\n<h2>Bulls aim for $18k to secure a $130 million profit<\/h2>\n<p>Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Dec. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Between $15,500 and $16,500:<\/strong> 200 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $30 million.<strong>Between $16,500 and $17,000:<\/strong> 1,700 calls vs. 1,500 puts. The net result is balanced between bears and bulls.<strong>Between $17,000 and $18,000:<\/strong> 5,500 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $100 million.<strong>Between $18,000 and $18,500:<\/strong> 7,300 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls completely dominate the expiry by profiting $130 million.<\/p>\n<p>This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.<\/p>\n<p>For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there&#8217;s no easy way to estimate this effect.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: <\/strong><strong><em>Institutional investors still eye crypto despite the FTX collapse<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Bulls probably have less margin to support the price<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Friday to secure a potential $130 million profit. On the other hand, the bears&#8217; best-case scenario requires a slight push below $16,500 to maximize their gains.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin bulls just had $230 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to support the price. <\/p>\n<p>Considering the negative pressure from traditional markets due to recession concerns and raising interest rates, bears will likely avoid a loss by keeping Bitcoin below $17,000 on Dec 9.<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors\u2019 alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"bitcoin\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-options-data-shows-bulls-aiming-for-17k-btc-price-by-friday-s-expiry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed to $15,500 on Nov. 21, driving the price to its lowest level in two years. The 2-day-long correction totaled an 8% downtrend and wiped out $230 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.\u00a0 The price move gave the false impression to bears that a sub-$15,500 expiry on the Dec. 9 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9034,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9033"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9033\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9035,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9033\/revisions\/9035"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}