{"id":8632,"date":"2022-11-18T19:41:08","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T19:41:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=8632"},"modified":"2022-11-18T19:41:08","modified_gmt":"2022-11-18T19:41:08","slug":"bitcoin-price-may-still-drop-40-after-ftx-lehman-moment-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=8632","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX \u2018Lehman moment\u2019 \u2014 Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"crypto\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) saw a fresh rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered more FTX fallout.<\/p>\n<p><em>BTC\/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>BTC gets a $12,000 price target<\/h2>\n<p>Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC\/USD failing to flip $17,000 to support \u2014 a trend in place for almost a week.<\/p>\n<p>The pair, like major altcoins, remained firmly tied down by cold feet over the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects for various crypto businesses.<\/p>\n<p>For analysts, the outlook remained just as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in light of recent events.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis underperformance of all crypto assets is here to stay until the bulk of uncertainly has cleared up \u2014 likely only near the turn of the new year,\u201d trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest circular to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.<\/p>\n<p>In an extensive market summary, QCP wrote that its price forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now had to drop to reflect the impact of FTX.<\/p>\n<p>Updating a prognosis based on Elliott Wave theory from June, it confirmed BTC\/USD now had a target of $12,000 and ETH\/USD $800.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a side-note, crypto markets have been trading akin to commodities ever since the 2017 top \u2014 with extended Wave 5s as the longest wave,\u201d the post added. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cHence such potential price action with new lows into the new year would be characteristic of previous bear market sell-offs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and stocks in November, with t correlation between them firmly shaken thanks to crypto\u2019s underperformance.<\/p>\n<p><em>BTC\/USD vs. ETH\/USD vs. S&amp;P 500 chart. Source: QCP Capital<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Popular trader and analyst Cantering Clark, meanwhile, noted that if the current bear market in risk assets were to copy the global financial crisis, heavy losses were still to come.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Lehman bankruptcy was the climax of the 2008 financial crisis. It was bottom material qualitatively, but the market paused and then committed to 40% lower,\u201d part of a tweet read.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNever say never, and don\u2019t let your guard down.\u201d<em>S&amp;P 500 annotated chart. Source: Cantering Clark\/Twitter<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.<\/p>\n<h2>Crypto pie \u201cbeing cut massively\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>Continuing, QCP also voiced concerns over declining volumes and open interest (OI) across both centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related:\u00a0<\/strong><strong>US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo far, CEX derivative exchange volumes have been most affected. Combined futures OI is now back to pre-2021 levels, a massive backward step for the industry,\u201d it wrote.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: QCP Capital<\/em><\/p>\n<p>On the topic of DEXs, it said the data \u201cimplies the entire crypto pie is being cut massively.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOverall DeFi TVL is now less than 1\/4 last year\u2019s peak!\u201d the post summarized alongside more explanatory charts. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven DEXes which would be expected to gain the most, have only seen volumes rise to Jul\/Aug levels, even with all the emergency token\/stables\/chain swapping that needed to be done post-FTX.\u201d<em>DEX volumes chart. Source: QCP Capital<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"bitcoin\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-may-still-drop-40-after-ftx-lehman-moment-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) saw a fresh rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered more FTX fallout. BTC\/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView BTC gets a $12,000 price target Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC\/USD failing to flip $17,000 to support \u2014 a trend in place for almost a week. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8632"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8632\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8634,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8632\/revisions\/8634"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}