{"id":6974,"date":"2022-09-07T21:15:08","date_gmt":"2022-09-07T21:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=6974"},"modified":"2022-09-07T21:15:09","modified_gmt":"2022-09-07T21:15:09","slug":"bitcoin-is-pinned-below-20k-as-the-macro-climate-stifles-hope-for-a-sustainable-btc-bull-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=6974","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin is pinned below $20K as the macro climate stifles hope for a sustainable BTC bull run"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"crypto\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin price is down for the year but it\u2019s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period.<\/p>\n<p>Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S. Treasuries&#8217; 5-year yield to reach 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. By demanding a loftier premium to hold government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in the current inflation controls.<\/p>\n<p>Data released on Sept. 7 shows that China&#8217;s exports grew 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after increasing by 18% in July. Furthermore, Germany&#8217;s industrial orders data on Sept. 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July versus the previous year. Thus, until there&#8217;s some decoupling from traditional markets, there&#8217;s not much hope for a sustainable Bitcoin bull run.<\/p>\n<h2>Bears were overly optimistic<\/h2>\n<p>The open interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears became too overconfident. These traders were not expecting $18,700 to hold because their bets targeted $18,500 and below.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 9. Source: CoinGlass<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The 0.77 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $180 million call (buy) open interest and the $230 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $18,900, meaning most bets from both sides will likely become worthless.<\/p>\n<p>If Bitcoin&#8217;s price remains below $20,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 9, only $13 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $20,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.<\/p>\n<h2>Bears aim for $18,000 to secure a $90 million profit<\/h2>\n<p>Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Sept. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Between $17,000 and $18,000:<\/strong> 0 calls vs. 4,300 puts. Bears completely dominate, profiting $130 million.<strong>Between $18,000 and $19,000:<\/strong> 0 calls vs. 5,050 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $90 million.<strong>Between $19,000 and $20,000:<\/strong> 700 calls vs. 1,900 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $50 million.<strong>Between $20,000 and $21,000:<\/strong> 2,050 calls vs. 2,200 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.<\/p>\n<p>This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.<\/p>\n<p>For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there&#8217;s no easy way to estimate this effect.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: <\/strong><strong><em>Bitcoin price hits 10-week low amid &#8216;painful&#8217; U.S. dollar rally warning<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Bulls have until Sept. 9 to ease their pain<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $20,000 on Sept. 9 to avoid a potential $130 million loss. On the other hand, the bears&#8217; best-case scenario requires a slight push below $18,000 to maximize their gains.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin bulls just had $246 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to drive the price higher. In other words, bears have a head start to peg BTC below $19,000 ahead of the weekly options expiry.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><em>author<\/em><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"bitcoin\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-is-pinned-below-20k-as-the-macro-climate-stifles-hope-for-a-sustainable-btc-bull-run\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts. Bitcoin price is down for the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6974"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6974\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6976,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6974\/revisions\/6976"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}