{"id":6451,"date":"2022-08-17T00:18:50","date_gmt":"2022-08-17T00:18:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=6451"},"modified":"2022-08-17T00:18:50","modified_gmt":"2022-08-17T00:18:50","slug":"bitcoin-traders-anticipate-new-yearly-lows-after-btcs-25k-rejection-data-disagrees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=6451","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin traders anticipate new yearly lows after BTC\u2019s $25K rejection \u2014 Data disagrees"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"crypto\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) showed weakness on Aug. 15, posting a 5% loss after testing the $25,000 resistance. The move liquidated over $150 million worth of leverage long positions and has led some traders to predict a move back toward the yearly low in the $18,000 range.<\/p>\n<p>The price action coincided with worsening conditions for tech stocks, including Chinese giant Tencent, which is expected to post its first-ever quarterly revenue decline. According to analysts, the Chinese gaming and social media conglomerate is expected to post quarterly earnings around $19.5 billion, which is 4% lower than the previous year.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, on Aug. 16, Citi investment bank slashed Zoom Video Communications (ZM) recommendation to sell, adding that the stock is &#8220;high risk.&#8221; Analysts explained that a challenging post-COVID dynamic, plus additional competition from Microsoft Teams, potentially caused a 20% drop in ZM shares.<\/p>\n<p>The overall bearish sentiment continues to plague crypto investors, a movement described by influencer and trader @ChrisBTCbull, who mentioned that a simple rejection at $25,000 caused traders to post sub-$17,000 targets.<\/p>\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">After #Bitcoin didn&#8217;t break price  through $25000, all CT started writing about the price again $16k-17k<\/p>\n<p>I think it&#8217;s time to open long#trading<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Chris (@ChrisBTCbull) August 16, 2022<\/p>\n<h2>Margin traders remain bullish despite the $25,000 rejection<\/h2>\n<p>Monitoring margin and options markets provides excellent insights into understanding how professional traders are positioned. For instance, a negative read would happen if whales and market makers reduced their exposure as BTC approached the $25,000 resistance.<\/p>\n<p>Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, increasing returns. For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy an additional Bitcoin position.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn&#8217;t always matched.<\/p>\n<p><em>OKX USDT\/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The above chart shows that OKX traders&#8217; margin lending ratio has remained relatively stable near 14 while Bitcoin price jumped 6.3% in two days only to be rejected after hitting the $25,200 resistance.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the metric remains bullish by favoring stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin. As a result, pro traders have been holding their bullish positions, and no additional bearish margin trades emerged as Bitcoin retraced 5.5% on Aug. 16.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: <\/strong><strong><em>Bitcoin miners hodl 27% less BTC after 3 months of major selling<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Option markets hold a neutral stance<\/h2>\n<p>There\u2019s uncertainty about whether Bitcoin will make another run toward the $25,000 resistance but the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection. <\/p>\n<p>The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.<\/p>\n<p>The skew indicator will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin 30-day options show 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As displayed above, the 25% delta skew has barely moved since Aug. 11, oscillating between 5% and 7% most of the time. This range is considered neutral because options traders are pricing a similar risk of unexpected pumps or dumps.<\/p>\n<p>If pro traders entered a &#8220;fear&#8221; sentiment, this metric would have moved above 10%, reflecting a lack of interest in offering downside protection.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the neutral Bitcoin options indicator, the OKX margin lending rate showed whales and market makers maintaining their bullish bets after a 5.5% BTC price decline on Aug. 16. For this reason, investors should expect another retest of the $25,000 resistance as soon as the global macroeconomic conditions improve.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the <\/em><em>author<\/em><em> and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"bitcoin\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-traders-anticipate-new-yearly-lows-after-btc-s-25k-rejection-data-disagrees\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) showed weakness on Aug. 15, posting a 5% loss after testing the $25,000 resistance. The move liquidated over $150 million worth of leverage long positions and has led some traders to predict a move back toward the yearly low in the $18,000 range. The price action coincided with worsening conditions for tech stocks, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6452,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6451"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6453,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6451\/revisions\/6453"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}