{"id":13585,"date":"2023-10-10T16:58:53","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T16:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=13585"},"modified":"2023-10-10T16:58:54","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T16:58:54","slug":"btc-price-rally-in-doubt-bitcoin-young-supply-echoes-2022-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/?p=13585","title":{"rendered":"BTC price rally in doubt? Bitcoin young supply echoes 2022 bear market"},"content":{"rendered":"<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"crypto\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) traders are displaying behavior similar to the 2022 bear market bottom as \u201cuncertain\u201d sentiment rules, new research argues.<\/p>\n<p>In one of its Quicktake market updates on Oct. 9, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant examined a major drop in realized capitalization of the most active part of the BTC supply.<\/p>\n<h2>One-month-old BTC supply realized cap comes full circle<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s more speculative investor cohorts continue to come in for scrutiny this year as BTC price action experiences a variety of diverging environments.<\/p>\n<p>The spot price is currently circling the aggregate cost basis for so-called short-term holders (STHS), defined as entities hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or less.<\/p>\n<p>Now, CryptoQuant reveals that the realized capitalization, or cap, of coins that last moved between 24 hours and one month ago has collapsed in recent months.<\/p>\n<p>Realized cap refers to the combined value, in U.S. dollars, of a specific group of Bitcoin being used in transactions. Tracking the total value of the one-day to one-month (1D-1M) cohort can give insights into broader BTC price action, CryptoQuant says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn my view, this dataset effectively reflects Bitcoin&#8217;s market price fluctuations,\u201d contributor Binh Dang wrote. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt represents recently acquired coins before they become long-term holdings or are continually traded in the short term.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In late 2022, when BTC\/USD fell to two-year lows, the 1D-1M cohort\u2019s realized cap fell below $20 billion. When Bitcoin peaked at just below $32,000 in July, the realized cap peaked at more than double \u2014 around $44 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Binh shows that the figure has now retreated back to those bear market levels, \u201crecovering slightly\u201d to still hover near the $20 billion mark.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe current change in this data (in blue and green) shows an inconsistent recovery, partly due to general market sentiment, including macroeconomic and geopolitical issues,\u201d he continued in commentary on an illustrative chart.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin realized cap supply data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin newbies \u201cshould not expect\u201d rerun of Q1 gains<\/h2>\n<p>$20 billion has formed a broad floor for the 1D-1M group since September 2022, but a stronger bounce should be viewed as unlikely in the future.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Related:\u00a0Bitcoin dominance hits 3-month high as \u2018hammered\u2019 altcoins risk dive<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe market will likely remain uncertain if these data don\u2019t show significant and positive trends from now until the year\u2019s end,\u201d Banh wrote. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe volatility will be unpredictable, so newcomers should not expect continuous and strong price increases as in the first half of this year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Similar conclusions can be drawn from the percentage of the aggregate realized cap accounted for by 1D-1M coins.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bitcoin 1D-1M cohort realized cap % chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"post-content__disclaimer\">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.\n<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\r\namzn_assoc_placement = \"adunit0\";\r\namzn_assoc_tracking_id = \"totafreearti-20\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_mode = \"search\";\r\namzn_assoc_ad_type = \"smart\";\r\namzn_assoc_marketplace = \"amazon\";\r\namzn_assoc_region = \"US\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_search_phrase = \"bitcoin\";\r\namzn_assoc_default_category = \"All\";\r\namzn_assoc_search_bar = \"false\";\r\namzn_assoc_title = \"\";\r\namzn_assoc_rows =\"1\";\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script src=\"\/\/z-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/widgets\/onejs?MarketPlace=US\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/btc-price-rally-doubt-bitcoin-young-supply-bear-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) traders are displaying behavior similar to the 2022 bear market bottom as \u201cuncertain\u201d sentiment rules, new research argues. In one of its Quicktake market updates on Oct. 9, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant examined a major drop in realized capitalization of the most active part of the BTC supply. One-month-old BTC supply realized cap [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13586,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13585"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13585\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13587,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13585\/revisions\/13587"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13586"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cryptoheretostay.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}